The 2024 general elections in India marked the return of coalition politics as the Bharatiya Janata Party, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, failed to win a majority in Parliament on its own. As a matter of fact, the election implied a change in the mindset of the electorate, who appeared to be influenced by issues such as unemployment, inflation, and the loss of faith in the so-called centralization of authority in Modi’s rule.
This has been a reflection of India’s political environment ahead of the 2014 elections, in which coalition politics became the dominant feature of much of the nation’s governance. Compared to the last election in 2019, in which the BJP got a landslide victory, this time around, the political dynamics have completely changed.
2019 vs. 2024 Election
In 2019, it secured an overwhelming mandate of 303 out of 543 Lok Sabha seats and far outpaced the majority mark of 272. The BJP-led NDA continued its hold over the electorate by harping on national security, economic growth, and welfare schemes such as Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and Ayushman Bharat. The story of strong leadership-narrated through Modi’s decisive response in the events of the Pulwama attack and the strikes in Balakot-struck deep among the Indian electorate. The BJP’s 2019 campaign was based on a sound central government with an emphasis on Hindutva, nationalism, and economic development.
In rather sharp yet palpable contrast, the results of the elections in 2024 were different. The BJP emerged as the single largest party but fell short of a clear majority. Its popularity had been eaten into by the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, and rising rates of unemployment. Voter fatigue generated by Modi’s style of authoritarian governance made coalition politics an attractive alternative. As the result of the 2024 election unfolded, regional parties seemed to come back again to take control of Indian politics.
One of the most striking differences seen in 2024 elections is possibly the growing strength of regional parties. In Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal, regional players like Telugu Desam Party-TDP, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-DMK, and Trinamool Congress-TMC made ground. These parties had cashed in on local issues such as agriculture reforms, unemployment, and regional autonomy. This regional resurgence had weakened the BJP’s hold in various states, compelling it to stitch alliances with smaller parties to retain power at the center.
Coalition Politics at Play
In 2024, coalition politics again became the dominant force that shaped the central government. The compulsion for an NDA coalition became more of a compulsion than an option before the BJP. The smaller coalition partners like TDP, Shiv Sena, and Janata Dal were accorded greater bargaining power and could shove their regional interests to the center in national governance. This has, in turn, forced the central government into performing a balancing act between national interests and the demand of coalition partners with diverse and often conflicting priorities.
Returning to coalition politics, India is also likely to see more federalism in governance. With regional parties often interested in policies that address their constituencies, programs may be more tailored to region-specific needs and areas. While this may have some positive outcomes, like more distributive justice and more attention to development at the local level, it has some drawbacks. The central government would not be able to pursue nationwide reform policies as energetically because the coalition partners in the regions would block policies against their interests.
Economic and Social Issues Driving the Change
Economic issues in the 2024 elections accounted for much of the outcome. Starting with the COVID-19 pandemic, this led to a world economic downturn that badly hit India in terms of job losses, price rises, and unsettled economies. More than anything else. The Modi government got sharp criticism from both the opposition and the people for its handling of those crises, especially the slow recovery in jobs and increase in the cost of living. Beyond that, democratic backsliding-including increased censorship, erosion of civil liberties, and centralization of power-further alienated parts of the electorate.
In 2019, the BJP rode on the wave of nationalism, promises of a strong economy, and national security. However, the economy by 2024 was in shambles with record-high economic inequality, unemployment, and hikes in prices of essential commodities. The opposition parties and most significantly Congress thereby shifted the focus on economic issues and succeeded in gaining the required traction for a majority in states where BJP’s economic policies were a failure in yielding actual gains.
The Implications for Foreign Policy
A strategic pivot to the West, especially to the United States, has been the hallmark of the Modi government’s foreign policy in initiatives like the Quad alliance. Indeed, in 2019, this seemed to be the reason viewed as a success of its foreign policy approach, giving India’s international profile a fillip. However, in 2024, the coalition government might present new tests to India’s foreign policy. Regional parties do not think along uniform lines on international relations, and coalition partners could press for a more nuanced, balanced way of pursuing global diplomacy.
For example, a party like the TDP or DMK could move for better relations with Sri Lanka or Bangladesh based on regional cooperation, rather than global alliances. This will give India new priorities on foreign policy issues regarding trade, climate change, and security. Even though Modi’s influence will be a big determining factor in foreign policy matters, coalition politics might mute India’s assertiveness on the global stage.
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Looking Ahead: Opportunities and Challenges
This return to coalition politics heralds both opportunities and challenges with regard to governance in India. On one hand, coalition governments are able to ensure more participation and representation in policymaking as regional interests are taken into account. Equitable development may then take place, whereby the states also get the due attention and resources that they need. On the other hand, coalition governments cannot very often guarantee stability since the conflicting interests of coalition partners may result in gridlock situations and hence slow decision-making.
The challenge for Prime Minister Modi will be how to gain greater support from his coalition partners without giving up his broader national agenda. Without a doubt, there will need to be concessions on some major issues-such as agricultural reforms, infrastructure building, and social welfare programs-to the regional parties. The balancing between the country and state interests will shape the next few years of Indian politics.
In other words, the 2024 elections marked a big departure from highly centralized political authority to a more splintered and regionally motivated one. As India returns to coalition politics, how the Center will play its role amid such dynamics shapes the economic and political destiny of the country. A coalition government will only make it more difficult, so managing the expectations of coalition partners without compromising on national interests will be the big challenge. It is during the next few years that India’s trajectory in many ways, both internally and internationally, will get defined.
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